How a December 2024 Congressional Report Predicted the Labor Shortages, Food Price Spikes, and Construction Collapse We’re Seeing Today
In my four decades of emergency management and disaster response, I’ve learned one critical lesson: when multiple expert analyses point to the same catastrophic outcome, you don’t wait for the disaster to hit before you start planning. You act on the data.
In December 2024, the Congressional Joint Economic Committee released a report titled “Mass Deportations Would Deliver a Catastrophic Blow to the U.S. Economy.” It wasn’t subtle. It wasn’t hedging. It laid out, in precise detail, what would happen if the incoming Trump administration followed through on its promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.
Now, nearly a year into the administration, we’re watching those predictions materialize in real time. Construction employment is dropping where it should be growing. Agricultural payrolls are collapsing. Food prices are climbing. And Trump’s own Labor Department has quietly admitted what the data showed all along: we’re heading toward “supply shock-induced food shortages.”
This isn’t partisan commentary. This is disaster response 101: recognize the warning signs, track the data, and sound the alarm before the cascade becomes unstoppable.
What the Report Said
The Joint Economic Committee report, released by Democratic committee members on December 12, 2024, compiled analysis from multiple nonpartisan sources: the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Congressional Budget Office, the American Immigration Council, and the Brookings Institution.
Yes, it came from Democrats. But the data didn’t.
The report’s core findings were stark:
If 8.3 million undocumented immigrants were deported:
GDP would drop 7.4% by 2028
Employment would fall 7% by 2028
The economy would see zero growth during Trump’s entire second term
This would exceed the 4.3% GDP contraction of the Great Recession
Even with “only” 1.3 million deportations:
GDP would still drop 1.2%
Employment would fall 1.1%
Prices would rise 1.5%
Key industry impacts:
Construction: Loss of up to 1.5 million workers (25% of the workforce)
Agriculture: Loss of up to 225,000 workers (42% of crop farmworkers)
Hospitality: Loss of 1 million workers
Manufacturing: Loss of 870,000 workers
Transportation: Loss of 461,000 workers
The complementary jobs effect:
For every 500,000 immigrants removed from the labor force, 44,000 U.S.-born workers would lose their jobs
The report’s analysis was clear: these aren’t jobs that U.S.-born workers are waiting to fill. They’re jobs that exist in a complex economic ecosystem where immigrant workers and U.S.-born workers complement each other, not compete.
The Nonpartisan Data Backing It Up
This wasn’t political spin. The sources behind the report’s findings are among the most respected in economic analysis:
Peterson Institute for International Economics - A nonpartisan think tank that has advised administrations of both parties. Their modeling showed that deporting 8.3 million people would also drive prices up by 9.1% by 2028.
Congressional Budget Office - The official, nonpartisan scorekeeper for Congress. They estimated that recent immigration could add $8.9 trillion to GDP over the next decade while reducing the deficit by $900 billion.
American Immigration Council - A nonpartisan research and advocacy organization that has documented immigration’s economic impact for decades.
Brookings Institution - Their research showed that foreign-born people pay on average $1,300 more in annual taxes than they receive in government services, and over a lifetime pay $237,000 more in taxes than they receive in benefits.
These aren’t partisan advocacy groups. These are the institutions Congress, businesses, and policymakers rely on for objective economic analysis.
What’s Actually Happening Now
Here’s where my disaster response training kicks in: when you see the early warning indicators start flashing, you don’t wait for confirmation. The data from 2025 shows the JEC report wasn’t just accurate—it was conservative.
Construction Industry - The First Domino
The construction industry entered 2025 with 248,000 unfilled positions and projections that it would need 454,000 additional workers beyond normal hiring just to meet demand. Then the deportations began.
The data by mid-2025:
The 10 states with the highest concentration of undocumented construction workers saw employment drop 0.1%, while other states grew 1.9%
California’s total workforce dropped 3.1% from May to June after intensive ICE workplace raids
92% of construction firms reported difficulty filling open positions
Industry experts estimate 23% of construction workers are immigrants, with roughly half undocumented
One construction executive put it bluntly: Single-family and multi-family housing projects could be “paralyzed,” with average 18-month projects stretching to five years due to labor shortages.
This is happening while the U.S. faces a housing shortage of 3.8 million homes. Mass deportations aren’t solving the housing crisis—they’re making it catastrophically worse.
Agriculture - The System is Breaking
The numbers from agriculture are even more alarming:
March to July 2025:
Agricultural employment dropped by 155,000 workers
Compare this to the same period in 2024, which saw a 2.2% increase
That’s not a slowdown—that’s a reversal
Industry specifics:
42% of crop farmworkers are undocumented
In states like Idaho, nearly 90% of dairy workers were born outside the U.S.
The hospitality industry saw labor force growth slow from 1.5% in June 2024 to just 0.2% in June 2025
Food Prices - Already Rising
Fresh vegetable prices increased 2% from April to July 2025. Meat prices rose 1.9% in the same period. The Peterson Institute projects these increases could hit 10% if deportations continue at current rates.
Studies show that even a 10% decrease in the agricultural workforce can lead to a 4.2% drop in fruit and vegetable production. We’re looking at potentially losing 42% of the crop workforce.
Trump’s Own Administration Admits It
Here’s the part that should alarm everyone, regardless of political affiliation.
On October 2, 2025, the U.S. Department of Labor filed an emergency rule change in the Federal Register. Buried in the regulatory language was a stunning admission: “the current and imminent labor shortage exacerbated by the near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens, increased enforcement of existing immigration law, and global competitiveness pressures... presents a sufficient risk of supply shock-induced food shortages to justify immediate implementation” of the rule.
The Labor Department went on to state that the lack of workers “results in significant disruptions to production costs and threatens the stability of domestic food production and prices for U.S consumers.”
They admitted what the data showed: higher wage rates for H-2A visa holders “have not resulted in a meaningful increase in new entrants of U.S. workers to temporary or seasonal agricultural jobs.”
Translation: Americans aren’t lining up to do this work, even with higher pay.
The same filing noted that agricultural work “remains physically demanding, often takes place in remote locations, carries elevated safety and health risks relative to most U.S. occupations, and offers relatively low compensation.” Their experience with the H-2A visa program demonstrates “a persistent and systemic lack of sufficient numbers of qualified, eligible and interested American workers to perform the kinds of work that agricultural employers demand.”
This directly contradicts Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ claim from July 2025 that deportations would move the workforce toward “100% American participation.” Her own Labor Department said it’s not happening.
The Cascading Failure
In disaster response, we talk about “cascading failures”—when one system failure triggers others in a chain reaction. That’s what we’re watching happen to the U.S. economy.
The cascade looks like this:
Labor Shortage: Deportations remove workers from construction, agriculture, food processing, and hospitality.
Production Slowdown: Without enough workers, construction projects stall, crops go unharvested, food processing slows, and restaurants can’t operate at full capacity.
Supply Reduction: Fewer homes get built, less food reaches the market, and services become scarce.
Price Increases: Reduced supply drives up costs for housing, food, and services.
Complementary Job Losses: Construction managers aren’t needed when there aren’t enough laborers to build. Restaurant servers aren’t needed when there aren’t enough cooks and dishwashers. For every 500,000 immigrants removed from the labor force, 44,000 U.S.-born workers lose their jobs.
Reduced Consumer Spending: Millions of deported workers were also consumers. Their absence reduces demand for goods and services, causing further job losses.
Economic Contraction: GDP shrinks, tax revenues fall, deficits grow.
This isn’t theory. This is what the data from 2025 is showing. And we’re only seven months in.
The Jobs Americans “Won’t Do” - Let’s Be Honest
There’s a persistent myth that needs to be addressed directly: the idea that deporting immigrant workers will open up jobs for U.S. citizens who are supposedly waiting for these opportunities.
The data says otherwise.
The construction industry has faced a labor shortage since the mid-2000s. If U.S.-born workers were eager to fill these positions, they would have done so already. The median age of construction workers is now 42-47 years old. The industry is aging out, not recruiting in.
In agriculture, 42% of crop farmworkers are undocumented, and the Labor Department has documented “a persistent and systemic lack” of U.S. workers willing to do this work. These are jobs that require manual labor in extreme weather, offer relatively low pay, and often take place in remote locations.
This isn’t about American workers being lazy or unwilling to work hard. It’s about the reality of modern labor markets. These jobs exist in sectors where the work is physically demanding, the conditions are difficult, and the pay—while essential—doesn’t attract sufficient numbers of U.S.-born workers.
The economic research confirms this. Undocumented workers and U.S.-born workers largely hold complementary jobs, not competing ones. Construction laborers enable construction managers. Farm workers enable farm supervisors. Dishwashers enable restaurant servers. Remove one part of the system, and the whole operation shrinks.
The Cost We’re Not Talking About
Beyond the economic damage, we need to acknowledge the sheer cost of the deportation operation itself.
The American Immigration Council estimated the cost at $88 billion per year—roughly four times NASA’s entire budget. Over ten years, estimates range from $350 billion to $886 billion.
To put this in perspective: for the price of one year of mass deportations, we could build 2.9 million new homes or send 8.9 million people to in-state public colleges.
Instead, we’re spending that money to remove workers from an economy that desperately needs them, while simultaneously driving up costs for every American through labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.
Where This Goes From Here
The Peterson Institute’s projections give us two scenarios for how this plays out:
Scenario 1: “Limited” Deportations (1.3 million people)
GDP drops 1.2% by 2028
Employment falls 1.1%
Prices rise 1.5%
Economic growth significantly slowed
Scenario 2: Aggressive Deportations (8.3 million people)
GDP drops 7.4% by 2028
Employment falls 7%
Prices rise 9.1%
Zero economic growth during Trump’s entire second term
Economic contraction worse than the Great Recession
Based on the Trump administration’s stated goal of 1 million deportations per year, we’re tracking closer to Scenario 2.
The Congressional Budget Office projected in March 2025 that civilian employment would grow by 4.2 million people between 2025 and 2029. Updated analyses from the Economic Policy Institute suggest that with continued deportations at this pace, employment would actually fall in absolute terms by 2029—a job loss of about 5.9 million.
That would be “a historically large and persistent drop in employment, unprecedented outside of the worst recessions in U.S. history.”
The Warning Signs Are All There
In disaster response, we have a saying: “The time to prepare is before the disaster, not during it.” But there’s a corollary to that: if you miss the preparation window, you’d better recognize the disaster when it’s unfolding and adapt fast.
We missed the preparation window. The JEC report gave us the data in December 2024. The nonpartisan research was clear. The modeling was sound. The warnings were explicit.
Now we’re in the disaster phase, and the question is whether we’ll recognize it before the cascade becomes irreversible.
The early indicators are flashing red:
Construction employment is dropping where it should be growing
The agricultural workforce is collapsing during a housing crisis and food shortage risk
Food prices are rising despite promises to lower them
The Labor Department is quietly admitting food shortage risks
States with high immigrant worker concentrations are seeing employment drops, while others grow
The intermediate indicators are starting to show:
1.2 million foreign-born people left the U.S. labor force between January and July 2025
Workforce participation is dropping across all demographic groups in states with heavy ICE enforcement
Businesses are unable to fill positions despite high unemployment in some areas
Construction projects are delayed or abandoned due to labor shortages
The long-term cascade is predictable:
If deportations continue at 1 million per year, we’re looking at 4-6.8% GDP loss
Economic contraction potentially exceeding the Great Recession
Millions of U.S.-born workers are losing jobs in the complementary sectors
Housing crisis worsening significantly
Food prices are rising sharply
Why Aren’t More People Talking About This?
This brings us back to the question that started this piece: if a Congressional report predicted economic catastrophe, and nonpartisan experts confirmed it, and now it’s happening exactly as predicted, why isn’t this dominating the conversation?
Several factors:
1. Partisan Dismissal: Because the report came from Democrats on the committee, it’s easy for supporters of deportations to dismiss it as political opposition rather than economic analysis. Never mind that the data came from nonpartisan sources.
2. Complexity: GDP projections and labor force analysis don’t make for viral soundbites. “Secure the border” is simple. “Removing 1.5 million construction workers will create bottlenecks that reduce employment for U.S.-born skilled workers because construction projects build on each other sequentially” is accurate but complicated.
3. Lag Time: The full economic impact takes time to show up in the data. We’re seeing the early indicators now, but the cascade builds over months and years.
4. Fragmented Information Environment: Different outlets cover different pieces—construction industry publications report the labor shortage, agriculture news covers farm worker deportations, food policy outlets track rising prices—but the connections between them aren’t always made explicit for general audiences.
5. Competing Narratives: The emotional arguments about border security, crime, and national identity are powerful and immediate. Economic projections about complementary labor markets feel abstract by comparison.
But here’s what I know from decades in emergency management: abstract predictions become very concrete very quickly when the disaster hits. And by then, your options for response are much more limited and much more expensive.
The Choice Ahead
I’m not here to tell you what immigration policy should be. That’s a complex question involving security, economics, humanitarian concerns, and values that reasonable people can disagree about.
But I am here to tell you that the economic cost of mass deportation is not hypothetical anymore. It’s not partisan spin. It’s not a worst-case scenario that might never happen.
It’s happening. The data from 2025 confirms what the JEC report predicted in December 2024. Trump’s own Labor Department has admitted the risks to food supply and prices. The construction industry is already showing the strain. Agricultural employment is collapsing.
We can have an honest debate about immigration reform. We can discuss border security, legal pathways, and enforcement priorities. But we need to have that debate with clear eyes about the economic reality we’re creating.
The current path leads to:
Fewer homes built during a housing crisis
Higher food prices when Americans are already struggling with costs
Job losses for U.S.-born workers in complementary industries
Economic contraction that could rival or exceed the Great Recession
Hundreds of billions spent on deportations instead of infrastructure, housing, or deficit reduction
The warning signs are there. The data is clear. The early impacts are already showing.
The only question is whether we’ll recognize the disaster for what it is before the cascade becomes unstoppable.
Sources and Further Reading
Congressional Joint Economic Committee Report: “Mass Deportations Would Deliver a Catastrophic Blow to the U.S. Economy” (December 2024)
Available at: https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2024/12/mass-deportations-would-deliver-a-catastrophic-blow-to-the-u-s-economy
Peterson Institute for International Economics: Immigration analysis and economic modeling
American Immigration Council: “Trump’s Immigration Actions Are Taking a Toll on Local Economies – Here’s What the Data Says So Far” (August 2025)
Economic Insights and Research Consulting: Agricultural and construction workforce analysis (August 2025)
U.S. Department of Labor: Federal Register Filing on H-2A Visa Program and Agricultural Labor Shortage (October 2, 2025)
Economic Policy Institute: “Trump’s deportation agenda will destroy millions of jobs: Both immigrants and U.S.-born workers would suffer job losses, particularly in construction and child care” (2025)
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