The Clash of Civilization: First Predictions of the Future
If Present Trends Continue: A Long-Term Prognosis for Human Civilisation Introduction: The Question Behind the Question When we ask about humanity’s long-term prognosis, “if things continue as they are,” we’re really asking: What happens when multiple unstable systems destabilis e simultaneously while we remain locked in the political and economic patterns that created the instability? The answer requires examining converging trajectories across climate, geopolitics, technology, resources, and social cohesion—and, critically, how these interact. The prognosis isn’t extinction versus utopia; it’s a narrowing window for managed transition versus forced transformation through crisis. Let me be clear about what “if things continue as they are” means: current military spending patterns persist, climate action remains insufficient, inequality continues growing, international cooperation deteriorates, and the political resistances described earlier remain dominant. This is not a worst-case sc...